It is just SO dependent on:
a) The drilling results
and
b) Mgmt interpretation and WORDING of the drilling results!
The phase 1 drilling results in retrospect were not actually bad considering they were drilling for structrual definition. As we all know it was the market who misunderstood the aim of the program... expecting an upgraded JORC resource statement.
That actually still worries me about the upcoming drill results. Lots of the previous "Denny Dalton Update" releases have stated that the aim of the current drilling campaign is to prove up the resource to Indicated and/or Measured.
I feel that punters need to be aware that the next release on drill results will be more structural results that will most likely be very similar to the Phase 1 drill results.
These will be plugged into the databse and contribute to the geological 3D model.
The next set of drilling results from the Infill drilling (RC Drill) will be the results that may just be able to provide an increased level of confidence to recalculate a resource upgrade to a status of JORC Indicated... but these results are still a month away I would imagine given the delays we've experienced with the Diamond drilling results.
Worst case... the Infill drilling results will just contribute further to the geological 3D model which may finally be released in approx 6 weeks time (assuming that the infill drill results come through within 4 weeks).
Whilst the pending drill results will CONTRIBUTE to increased confidence in the resource status... I don't think that they will be enough on their own to release an upgraded JORC statement.
There may be some slight mis-interpretation from some punters again regarding the JORC statements.
An upgraded resource won't be released now. It will still require the geological model to be created, and then further drill results on closer grid spacings to definitively increase the confidence in the resource... the primary ingredient of a JORC classification upgrade.
What the upcoming drill results CAN contribute though, are some more consistent intercepts up around the 700ppm U3O8 - 13g/t Au range, and some clearer more transparent wording from Craig when he attempts to summarise the 40 odd page CCIC technical report of the results into a 3 page ASX release.
There is great potential for the resource to be providing the right information... but for mgmt to be poorly representing it again.
This is the greatest risk IMO.
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