Hi Lastword,Yes my (guess) is about 65c in 12 months and about...

Hi Lastword,

Yes my (guess) is about 65c in 12 months and about 70c in 18 months.
A healthy realistic return with back of envelope calcs below.
The issue with these oppies is many and will also miss out on divvies if paid out too! This alone could be significant and needs to be factored in.

What really matters is what you believe the sp will be at expiry!

Back of envelope, 12 - 18months.
1B shares, fully diluted with bonds, wwr purchase etc.
SP 65 - 70C
EV circa 650 - 700m
NPAT range, 40 -45m
PE of 15, PE would work out to about 600 - 675m
Plenty of variables like pog and capex, however it's all ballpark and crystal balls.

With these figure the $1 plus dreamy figures with 1B shares starts to unwind and this is the area where the oppie leverage would start to make money.

If you are looking at oppies due to the high strike, you need to be very comfortable with your own 18 month target.
For me, heads are the play for now, however each to their own.
Mav