I'm no expert with options but from what i have found it doesn't always work out as numbers only... a certain head price doesn't dictate the options price..
What i mean is, even if the heads are at 10c in 3 weeks, it doesn't mean the options will only be at 2.5c.. it's all about how far you perceive the share price could go by the exercise date.. If we have people drilling near us in africa, and WHN becomes very hot property, and we also have shell drilling near our WA acreage, suddenly WHN becomes more lucrative and our price could stay around 13-15c around June. That would mean that the options would be around 5-7c..
For example, last year, the options were at 2.5-3c when the heads were between 6.2-6.6c..
the options will usually go up rapidly when there is news ahead because it means that if the share price rockets to 14c on news, and you paid 2cents for options, you can convert them for 7.5c (giving you a cost of 9.5c) and then sell them on the open market for a gain of 4.5c per share.. this is a good way of doing it if you miss the boat on the heads, you may be able to get into the options and still make a profit.
Or, you may just want to buy cheap options, convert, and sit on them with a nice low avg buy price.
Either way, I still hold my ground by saying that if this farm out is as we expect, and very lucrative for this company, I suggest we may see upwards of 19c high with a close around 13-15c. This would make the options worth approx 4-6c CONSERVATIVELY. Could have a bigger intraday high.
remember, there are only 165m options, and i own 1,000,000 of them.. and my friends and I own around 10,000,000 between us. They will be hot property after the farm out announcement, as there will be, in my opinion, no cheaper way to get into the company by that stage.
As i said i am no expert, and if i have something wrong here or understand something in the wrong way, please feel free to discuss. We're all here with the same goal in mind.
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