Disclaimer: I'm no guru at reading the charts, so go easy.
So last night UNIS appeared to break through on the downside of the rising channel currently in play.
With a general holding pattern UNIS has been in since May 2013, the recent rise from Oct 14 has been most encouraging, but alas we still haven't permanently made the step shift higher than the magic $5 mark.
It's been 3 months since UNIS quietly let the market know Abbvie were keen to drop $5million to start negotiating a supply deal. My assumption is that we might be close to hearing how those negotiations have gone. On the upside, if the hints from Abbvie are anything to go by, it looks like they are keen to differentiate their existing products. One can only assume they are talking to Unilife about this goal. It's safe to say if exclusivity is on the table and we get to help with the likes of Humira, the announcement of terms could be a very big deal.
Back at the ranch, one can assume all the pieces are being put in place to start generating sales to Hikma and Sanofi. We also know Flextronics should have plans in place to assist with product generation. Sales are coming.
Also sitting out there are more deals we are yet to hear about. If the scarce bread crumbs are anything to go by, there could be some very large deals in the pipeline.
So as the share price drops out of the channel, technical traders, weak knee holders and our short friends may drive the price lower. With no immediate news, we might start testing the low 70's again. Assuming there has been a step change in pricing since Oct 14, this maybe the last opportunity to buy some shares at the lower end before a significant rerate occurs leading into an expansion of sales through 2016-2017. My thinking is the next 6 months will see the start of the rerate.
Hopefully by Xmas no one has cause for complaint as the shorts have been burnt to a crisp, share price is nudging current analysts forecasts and we're all looking at nice big fat holding values.
See you guys in the buy queue
UNS Price at posting:
80.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
