Did some some research into OPT at the weekend, and also into...

Did some some research into OPT at the weekend, and also into RPL's apparent 30% holding in OPT. A hazy horror story has emerged.

It turns out that the recent big fall in RPL's SP is probably because RPL holds 30% of OPT, and OPT has recently fallen by nearly 50%. OPT this morning announced much anticipated phase 3 results that were so bad that OPT may become insolvent. OPT's shares have been suspended for the last week and remain suspended. Although it can be suspected that OPT's recent SP fall may have been caused by insider trading ahead of the terrible results announcement, there is no need to suspect any insider trading as being a cause of RPL's recent SP fall. RPL's SP fall would have been caused simply as a reaction to OPT's SP fall.

Part of RPL's holding in OPT appears to not actually be at the risk of RPL. Some of RPL's OPT holding is held by RPL on behalf of RF1 for whom RPL acts as an investment manager. So, some of the recent big fall in RPL's 30% holding in OPT will have been at the expense of RF1's NTA rather than at RPL's expense. A holding in OPT is mentioned in RF1's monthly report for January. RF1's holding in OPT would be partly responsible for RF1's NTA falling by 20 cents recently.

In my opinion, OPT ranks as an unproven speccy pharma. Although many were predicting a bright future for OPT, speccy pharmas tend to be more risky than a visit to the casino. I am now much more cautious about RPL's prospects than I used to be, now that I know that RPL's investment strategies allow them to put so many eggs into one basketcase.

Can't really complain. There were some good swing trading opportunities on the way down, which provided an overall profit amidst the gloom. Next on the RPL agenda is picking the bottom. What could possibly go (more) wrong?