I've done some calculations for my own amusement and general work avoidance this morning. There are a number of caveats so readers don't get to carried away. What you need to remember is that Puntland onshore / offshore and Georgia are not factored in to the calculations.
DYOR
- These calculations are provided as is. - These calculations are not SP predictions. - These calculations use 50% of the natural gas and crude prices to factor in recovery, onstream costs and taxes. In actual fact these may be higher or lower. - These calculation use 25% to calculate the value to Range when we know that this will differ per well head (RB#1 will be 20%) - Oil and gas finds are not generally valued this way. Use $10 per barrel and $1 per Mcf for a colder set of figures. Those values are used when the field is to be sold not developed. - Options not factored in - Dry hole cost for RB#1 will be $3.8m ($760k to Range) - A Multi well programme will eat into the figures
To account for most of the caveats below cut these figures in half and you still get big numbers.
Calculations based on working provided below 200Bcf and 3m boe = 8.8p 200Bcf and 5m boe = 10p 250Bcf and 7.5m boe = 12.95p 300Bcf and 10m boe = 16.5p
Workings
Natural gas spot price (per Mcf) 3.93 Natural gas spot price (per Bcf) 3930000 Natural gas spot price (per 100Bcf) 393000000 Range stake is 25% 98250000 $98.2m
Discount for recovery factor, onstream costs and tax (50%) $49m Convert to sterling (@0.67) �32.8m Shares in issue (850m) 0.038588235 Round down for 100Bcf SP 3.5p
Crude spot price (1 boe) 75.11 Crude spot price (1m boe) 75110000 Range stake is 25% 18777500 $18.7m Discount for recovery factor, onstream costs and tax (50%) $9.40 Convert to sterling (@0.67) �6.3m
Shares in issue (850m) 0.007411765 Round down for 1m boe SP 0.06p
