RRL 0.30% $1.67 regis resources limited

Optimistic forecast, page-42

  1. 72 Posts.
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    For Regis any 100 AUD gop-change translates to 40 million in EBIT (as production including Tropicana-share amounts to around 500k oz of whcih 100k oz are sold into hedge book).
    40 mio EBIT tanslates to around 28 million after taxes or 3,7 cents per share. At a EPS share price ratio of 12-13 that would lead to around 50 cents for the sp.
    So your outlook of AUD 2.900 (260 above my figure stated above) would justify another $1,30.

    A price differential between my AUD 2.400 on the hedged 100k oz to your AUD 2.900 will give another 50 mio EBIT or another 60 cents per share (but only after the hedges have been bled of in three years time).

    Maybe at those prices of AUD 2.900 McPhillamys will account for a little more than an NPV of 750 million but that is a wild guess in any case as neither production volume nor AISC can be figured. And I don´t like to be guessing so that dollar is not in my expectation list in any case.
    And I further figure that gop-increases in the next 18 months will be countered by inflation-driven rising AISC. Any 100 AUD increase will lower EBIT by 50 million, profit by 35 million and EPS by almost 5 cents per share (=> 60 cents on the sp)

    So even @ AUD 2.900 in 3 years and even after the hedges are finished an sp of AUD 8 is quite optimistic (with McPhillamys that might be possible but McPhillamys is a total wild card for now as stated above).

    But as AUD 5 would be 100% on current sp and anything above that would be even more I do not need to expect AUD 8 or AUD 14 to identify RRL as a buy.

    Last edited by GermanInvestor: 10/07/21
 
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