Optimistic forecast, page-8

My comment on bingo checklist from amie22:
1. McPhillamy's approval => Will take longer than expected (beyond this year) and is considerably shaky (water issues)
2. Higher than expected production from Tropicana => Not likely in current FY
3. Gold price hits $2000 USD => IMO likely, I expect even more than that. An increase to USD 2.000 would have an impact on the valuation of Regis of about 20% once incurred.
4. Mine life extended around Duketon => Likely but to have a share price impact these news have to come out and be more precise as to the extent of life extension.
5. Good news regarding exploration surrounding Tropicana => Likely but not in the next 6 months. IMO the most short-term effect regarding Tropicana will come from gold prices going north.
6. AISC's don't go up.=> They will be higher in FY 2020/2021 and higher still in FY 2021/2022. Does have an impact on all miners though.
7. Cryptocurrencies die painfully. => They won´t die but the current valuation and especially the development of that valuation compared to tangible assets including precious metals is incoherent.

IMO there are substantial negative developments to be recognized (such as rising AISC, lower gold prices, cut dividend, lower than expected EPS, dilution). But those negative factors have already been recogniced in the share price and IMO that recognition process went too far, especially in the past 3 months. So I expect a considerable bounce back to fair value (based upon expected EPS for FY 2021/2022 to be calculated after release of financial report on FY 2020/2021). Additional special good news are not needed for that effect. I expect a further bounce due to a rising gold price (I agree to expectation #3). I do not expect the big issues such as McPhillamys hit in the next 6 months. Even with that somewhat more reluctant outlook I am still optimistic and am staying all in as for now.