Option conversion

Received my Expiry of Options letter this morning (and yes, I will be exercising mine) and it prompted me to run some numbers to see if I could take a guess at the likely take up rate.

At the time of resting there were 302 million options issued to the market (I've rounded the numbers to make it easier). Based on my expiry letter as of 29 November 2017 240 million remained "unexercised". That means 62 million have been exercised at .008 which has contributed just shy of $500K to Intiger's cashflow in the last couple of years.

Now what of the remaining options? Given the relative illiquidity of the options in the last 2 years I suspect there are quite a view large IAMOA holders (myself included) who to various degrees are in red and need to make the call on whether they try to bail out now at a substantial loss or bite the bullet and convert them. That's going to very much a personal decision based on each individuals view of where Initiger's share price is heading in the future. There will probably be plenty of fresh buyers who will see the options "in the money" in the next couple of weeks to let this happen and in turn convert them.

That leaves the 179 million options that have been traded at .01 or under since the 11th of August. A great many of those would have just been churn (the same parcels being passed around) however in my opinion given the current SP and business momentum these stand a very good chance of being exercised.

So where does that leave us? I'll take a punt and guess that something like 200 million options will be exercised at .008 giving Intiger around $1.6M extra to play with going into 2018. Yes, that means the SP may feel some initial pressure due to the dilution but in my opinion that will soon be forgotten. If that many options do get exercised the subsequent trading volumes will likely be quite high and if that is coupled with a couple of decent announcements and a reasonable 4C release at the end of January the worst will most certainly be behind us.

Anyway, just a bit of guesswork on a rainy morning.

All just my opinion of course.