Optivo forecast to be biggest blockbuster in 2019

A recent survey published by Thomson Reuters (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...s-most-promising-drugs-of-2015-300053924.html) notes that the number of blockbuster drugs to be released in US this year will increase to 11, from 3 last year. The forecast uses consensus estimates of US sales in 2019 and notes that Optivo heads the list, with estimated sales of $5.7 billion. (The other drugs have estimated sales of over $1 billion.)

The article notes that the big battle in the immuno-oncology space will be between BMY's Optivo and Merck's Keytruda, which was released in US last year. Keytruda's forecasted sales in 2019 are $3.5 billion. Both company's are seeking approval for their drugs in the EU market and Merck has also sought US approval for its drug to combat  non-small-lung cancer (NSLC.)

We should keep in mind that there is still plenty of room for other therapies to combat melanomas and similar cancers - the Optivo CheckMate study showed an overall response rate of 32% (Cavatak's Ph 2 CALM trial gave 28%). We can expect a mighty rush for other companies to try to develop effective therapies before these majors dominate the market. A combination therapy with Cavatek may give better results and be a faster route to market....would be nice to have a share of a $15-20 billion market.