The list of MVNOs is not growing but instead a consolidation...

The list of MVNOs is not growing but instead a consolidation wave is fully underway. What counts is not the number of MVNOs but the size of their subscriber base and the resulting buying power that gives the MVNO leverage in negotiating Network Supply Agreements. And this is exactly where the great potential for AYS lays: negotiating a better deal to improve its margins and also increase revenue e.g. by expanding its service portfolio by 5G-based fixed wireless broadband, a promising segment given NBN pricing. With 1.1m subscribers AYS is a heavyweight in the MVNO market and its importance for the underlying MNO can't be overestimated.

As of price deterioration I think the curve has been bottoming out and nobody, particularly not the MNOs who need billions for the 5G roll out, have an interest in a price war but instead intend to increase ARPU with the introduction of 5G. But even in a market driven by price competition AYS will be at advantage due to its scale and I doubt MNOs will allow the smaller MVNOs to further cannibalize their customer base by cutting tariffs. At the same time MVNOs or at least multiple brands are extremely important to MNOs to capture the various market segments without cannibalizing their own high-ARPU subscriber base.

It is also worth noting that Amazon last year tried to buy stakes in Indian mobile carriers and most notably fully acquire Boost Mobile in the US (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sprint-corp-m-a-t-mobile-amazon-com-e-idUSKCN1T02OV) which highlights the strategic value of MVNOs for the big tech companies. Amazon is not only in the process of launching an IoT network called Amazon Sidewalk which will silently render Echo devices into access points but they are also working on massive low-earth orbit satellite constellation for global broadband called Project Kuiper for which US$10bn have been allocated. Clearly Amazon intends to diversify into the connectivity business to control the network over which its higher-value services are sold and delivered. Amaysim would be a perfect vehicle to consolidate Amazon's connectivity services under the earlier's brand (which bears remarkable resemblance to the latter), to cross-sell all kind of products and services (not limited to connectivity) and develop processes and tools required for selling the Project Kuiper satellite service into the Australian market and beyond. Interestingly AYS' business support system is already running in Amazon's cloud (AWS), so AYS would be a perfect strategic fit for Amazon from a number of perspectives.

Regardless of whether Amazon might show interest once the no-shop clause of the Optus deal expires, I believe that there is huge strategic value in AYS which could be unlocked easily with a proper strategy and competent board that has a clear vision. However, the board's recommendation to accept Optus' offer with its unacceptable structure including a no-shop clause effectively banning competing bids and the dark picture they've suddenly been painting of the business in recent weeks raises serious doubts as to whether the company is led by the right people and if their interests align with those of shareholders.

I do encourage every holder to thwart this outright attempt of daylight robbery and VOTE AGAINST THE DEAL during the EGM on January 21st. After that much better options will come up.