Thanks for your thoughts. And, of course, this entire discussion...

Thanks for your thoughts. And, of course, this entire discussion is purely speculative - I think you do raise some interesting points for the contra argument.

Picking up on your last point first - I agree 100% that if anything were to happen here it would not be anytime soon. 2D has enough on its plate trying to merge Orcon's fibre assets with its mobile base. This is no mean feat and I think it would take a good couple of years to fully sort out. That does not mean that they would have to wait that long to go after Sky, but I do not think that they would realistically do something with Sky for a while yet. After all, they haven't even finalised their current merger deal let alone actually merge the operations.

With regards to the points you raise about why Sky TV may not be keen...in my mind, if a deal were to happen it would not be a merger like you see with 2D/Orcon (or what Sky tried to do with Vodafone in 2016). The owners of 2D (Voyage Ltd) would do a takeover of Sky TV and then merge it with 2D later.
Conceptually this is quite different because, in this scenario, it actually doesn't matter what the Sky Board think of the merits of becoming a telco (or matters a lot less anyway). If 2D offered a good price for Sky without too many preconditions then they would be compelled to present that offer to shareholders to vote on (just like they would if PE made a compelling offer). And if the price represented a fair premium to the SP I don't see why shareholders would reject the offer.
In this scenario, from the Sky Board's perspective all that really matters is price and the likelihood that the deal will get done. Imagine, for exampe, if Voyage Ltd put a formal offer to Sky to buy the business for a price in the range of $3.50- $4/share. Could the Board reject that offer (given where the SP is now) just because they and their advisors (Jarden) don't personally think telco is good? If they had good reasons for why they think a deal would not get passed Comcom then there could be some reticense...but even then they would have to have really good reasoning to outright reject such a deal given the possibilities for shareholders.

When you see it from that angle, then you realise what mostly matters is why would 2D want Sky (not the other way around)? If you don't think 2D would benefit by owning Sky then your conclusion must be that no takeover will ever happen.

With regards to your comment about 2D/Orcon customers being broke (relative to Spark and Vodafone customers) I am not sure where you got that idea from? I have certainly never seen anything that indicates their customers come from NZ's underclass that can maybe afford a NEON if they are lucky?

The reason 2D would go after Sky is simple: 2D is positioned as a challenger brand and Sky TV it is a complimentary asset that will give them something to differentiate their core products (some 'secret sauce' if you will). Spark have been in the content space for many years now, why would we think that 2D wouldn't want that too? Sky is a particularly special asset to own because she has seen off many competitors over the years (Colliseum Sport, Lightbox and soon Spark Sport most likely). The bundles and pricing that that could offer would absolutely enable them to capture a larger market share than they will be able to if they remain a mini-Vodafone. Then there are various cost savings to be had, and Sky produces FCF in the tens of millions of dollars which 2D could put to good use rather than being compelled to pay a dividend to their owners.

I could go on.

Vodafone is taking a different path now under new ownership (Infratil) to just buy hard assets (hence them dumping Vodafone TV). There is no appetite at the moment for an established player like Vodafone to go through the whole process again.

Given any deal is unlikely to happen in the near term, things may develop over the next year in a way that makes a deal not possible. The types of things I am thinking of include:

1. Someone else like Private Equity could buy Sky before 2D is ready
2. Sky could do some kind of M&A with another entity that would make it impossible for 2D to get a purchase of Sky past the regulators. For example, if Sky did a deal with NZME to expand its dominance as a media play I think it would be harder for a telco to buy Sky.
3. Intelligent use of available capital (getting the balance right between investing for growth, buyback/capital return and dividends) could drive the SP up significantly. It could get to the point where the cost to buy Sky is too high relative to the benefits that can already get just by maintaining wholesale deals with Sky TV.

Very interesting developments to come regardless of which way the various players jump!