ord about to be re-rated, page-71

Having another crack @ Valuation here:

AWC getting $420 tonne

Lets assume this and $250 opex per tonne.

420-250 = $170/t Profit.

600,000T x $170 = 102m SARCO Profit Y1

102m x 0.17 = 17 mil profit ORD Share.

17m x PE 30 = 1/2B.

Key assumptions that NFC and ORD move to a binding contract.

If anything this calculation could be said to be conservative. There is imo greater scope for independent Alumina pricing as opposed to fixed % of Aluminium (depressed curently). OPEX figure will be much lower than $250. The resource is shallow and LARGE = cheap to get to.

As mentioned previously AWC trades at 30 x earnings.
ORD is increasing capacity with NFC at a very rapid rate. Combined with GRAM and CCD value ORD could be a $1 stock by 2014. To keep the ledger even there will be some debt along the way but the prospective nature of Superjack and copperflate more than negates over speculation either way at this stage.

I am almost at the stage whereby a transparent Valuation can arise from Alumina and Coal operations. All I need to see is a binding contract and GRAM deal sealed. All imo from previous ann's seem a rather formality one may think.