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dott

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22/01/15

14:51

Post #: 14624294
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Originally posted by malgmac ↑

Shadow,

we will find out soon enough what total capital will be (by June at latest)

What no one seems to be talking about is revenue.

In 2012, CDU put together a presentation for the global investor roadshow. When I finally got past the 25 pages headed on every page only 188.4 million shares, $130 mill cash and no debt (those were the days) I finally got to the numbers revenue costs NPV etc.

The revenue quoted for 10 years was A$ 3.99 billion. Using the prices quoted and FX rates at the time I was able to get to the revenue figure using the quoted 1.7% Cu Eq figures.

Now when I use the latest JORC figures of 1.9% Cu Eq and use current US$ prices for Cu , CO Au and magentite at A$ 0.82, the revenue figure drops as follows

Cu, Co, Au + mag $A 2.9 bill
Cu, Co & Au A$ 2.8 bill mag not worth much and only 55% recovery
Cu& AU A$ 2.3 bill

So cobalt even at US$13.79 lb is critical for revenue.

Not surprising that we have not seen updated forward financials for a while. The biggest drop in revenue from $3.99 bill to $2,9 bill was Co $955 mill to $500 mill

It will be very interesting reading when they lodge the application to the HK exchange.

Perhaps the above figures also have a lot to do with current share price. 10 minutes work in Excel to get the above figures. Pretty sure sophisticated investors do what I have just done on a regular basis.

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"It will be very interesting reading when they lodge the application to the HK exchange."

haha..wont it just !

CDU Price at posting: $1.37 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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