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LOL if you want to call it : "Years of successes ramping up...

  1. 2,426 Posts.
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    LOL if you want to call it : "Years of successes ramping up production" that is up to you ! but i agree i should have used instead more precise statements like "years of failure in achieving planned nameplate production" or "years of delays in achieving nameplate production", or "years of very slow ramping up of production"....etc.

    Regarding Risk/Reward ratios in investment, I find it interesting that some microcap investors like Ian Cassel avoid COMPLETELY the resource sector, precisely due to the impact of dilution on long term shareholders, which relates very well to orocobre story (I precise : since 2012 for "Niu"'s pleasure lol) he says :

    I believe the biggest risk to microcap investors is share dilution. One of the keys to successfully investing in microcaps is finding companies that don’t need to constantly raise capital to survive.
    So right off the bat, be very careful of capital-intensive industries like mining, energy, and biotech. In many cases these companies need to spend $50m-$100m- even $1 billion on R&D, FDA trials, permitting, exploration etc before they produce one dollar of revenue. Obviously, even in these industries there are those rare situations where great microcaps can be found, but for the most part it’s a crapshoot.

    To illustrate this point further, all you have to do is look at this two-year chart of the TSX Venture Comp Vs S&P 500. The TSX Venture Comp is 85% junior energy and mining companies who have to constantly raise capital to survive.

    These capital intensive industries are especially hard for retail investors because institutions know these companies are going to have to raise money, so the stocks normally can’t ever get out of their own way. Institutions just wait for the next capital raise, which will be done at a discount, and short the common stock while they wait. Soon enough you have a company with a bloated share structure spiraling lower and lower. The only way I invest in these particular industries anymore is if I’m investing at the founders level (aka the lowest valuation possible).

    Obviously, serial money raising companies can be found in every industry, so you just need to be careful. If a company isn’t profitable, make sure they have enough cash in the bank to get them to profitability. When management says they have enough cash, don’t believe them. It always takes more time and more money.

    Now, story time…

    Talking about winners is a great ego boost but offers little value. “I picked the right stock, it went up, let me pat myself on the back”. I’ll leave that to the gurus trying to sell you something.
    I really like to talk about my losers. Why? Because I hope that someone somewhere can learn from all the mistakes I’ve made through the years. It also lets me reflect back on these experiences and learn to be a better investor."

    https://microcapclub.com/2013/07/a-microcap-investors-worst-enemy-is-dilution/

    I never get enough reading this great article froom Ian Cassel, but I am still only a resource investor LOL chasing QUICK multi-baggers is too attractive an opportunity....

    do you agree with Ian Cassel ? it seems to me what he says applies to a great extent to what happened (will happen ?) to orocobre.

    I really hope Niu is right and the company may not need anymore to raise money from instituions at a discount. and those who want the stock should buy it from the open market....BUT I HIGHLY DOUBT IT !
    Last edited by DoctorFouad: 08/10/16
 
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