I find it pointless to predict exactly where sp would go. But,...

I find it pointless to predict exactly where sp would go.
But, given the nature of huge cap raising amounting to 2.5 Billions, about 36% of market cap, which is raised at $4 per share, excluding the bookbuild(only 8% of 1.35billions),
the short term share price would hover slightly above $4.00 mark, I don't think bookbuild price at $5.2 has large bearing on CR.

CR itself is not an issue. It's the timing of CR. The management team initially overlooked the impact of persisting lower oil price and was likely betting on oil price recovery in short term to avoid CR to cover debt.
Yet, the market is efficient and usually quite transparent, continuing to sell down ORG on lower oil price.

Now, CR price is ridiculously cheap and significantly dilute the value of existing shareholder's value. Though quite a good deal for new investors.

ORG is a typical example of how company's refusal to accept the harsh reality has resulted in delay in appropriate decision-making and loss of value in shares.
I would not say ORG management team did not do any scenario planning and calculate its cashflow at worse scenario. These are some of the basic tools for running a company. It's the corporate culture that encourages risk-taking behavior, which makes huge betting on oil price to remain high at above $100, during its expansion stage; which once again makes huge betting on quick oil price recovery, after oil price has unexpectedly fallen to about $50 marks.

CR is long overdue. Management at ORG is in my opinion quite arrogant. They don't like to be wrong, keep delaying the need for CR to avoid debt default, because this types of CR is an indication of badly-run firm.

Expect huge drop on Monday. I would like anything in the range of 4.00 to 4.2 is buy price. ORG is a good firm, badly run by the management team. So, still a valuable firm. just need to change the management team/culture.

btw, Santos also is in trouble. Might do CR, if oil price does not recover. ORG/STO are gambling with the commodity market. It's ridiculous.