Judging from their most recent address to shareholders and their announcement of 1M subscribers, organic subscriber growth has slowed considerably. My numbers show that between FY15 to FY16, they were adding approximately 8,352 customers organically per month. In the 4 months from FY15, to start of November, organic subscriber growth per month has declined almost 30% (approximately 0.88% organic growth per month for the past 4 months, compared to 1.25% per month in the period between FY15 to FY16. My Numbers below:
FY15 End: 718k Subscribers
Add Vaya Acquisition: 140k Subscribers
Organic Subscriber Growth between FY15 to FY16: 108k Subscribers
FY16 End: 966k Subscribers
Add 4 Months to Nov 16: 34k Subscribers
November 2016: 1M Subscribers
I know we are yet to see growth rates for the full-year and this is only since end of June 16, but clearly once you strip out the momentum provided by the Vaya acquisition, you can get a picture of growth moving forward. Management need to show a higher organic growth rate in their subscriber base going forward imo, either through an acceleration of their Broadband Strategy or via restoration of their previous organic growth rate. Future cash flows will also be hampered by the Optus Liability with relation to the Vaya acquisition, so it will be interesting to see how they will move the company forward from here – perhaps their move into Broadband will do the trick!
AYS Price at posting:
$2.14 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
