Origin Energy Stategic Positioning, page-131

Hi Croas, nice to see you again ! chk the fwd curve on CME ......mr market has only bid up 2-3 months out, not the fwd curve.

basically (for ORG), if the OP < 32-35, then mr market will value APLNG at close to zero ........prob requires >> 65-70 for some of the value in the asset to be put in the share price.....once the debt gets refied in 24 months time, the value of the asset will be clearer (ie preff's are an asset with OP > 65, and aplng on 8-10 times c/flow).......

has some of (although less) of the issues facing AGL - being replacement of electricity plant with renewables over time, albeit not as dramatic as AGL.......Oz does require many many billions to be spent to replace our ageing east-coast fleet........

the other side of the same equation - how big is the rebound in demand (as consumers chg to electric)......difficult to say, b/s picture is distorted via aviation (circa 8% global consumption). i do in gerenal agree - re underinvestment within the sector.

also worthy of consideration - what does china inc do with its shareholding inside the asset (see STO and china inc taking $$$ off the table).

as always - enjoy the discussions !

rgds
V_H