There is no shift to electric in terms of oil demand, presently battery cars are $50,000 or so? Most people can't afford a new $30,000 ICE car let alone BEC so it remains an insignificant luxury niche.
Despite Elon Musk's promises/fraud/stock promotion/self-enrichment scheme - leading the EV charge.
I think EVs will come but it may be 5-10 years and they don't make a huge difference to the climate crisis as they use lots of energy.
AGL are taking the pain to close Liddell, that's a benefit to ORG and their coal power station as battery in 2032 PR scam. Most of origin's generation is gas - a lot of it is peaking.
I any case the Eraring was a bargain purchase at $50m, their electricity generating stations can last 40 years although maintenance costs are high on the Gas turbines.
They've stated that they plan to buy renewable energy when it's cheap and benefit from high prices due to intermittency with their gas - this is smart. Perhaps smarter if people are overbuilding renewable energy in Australia which sounds to be the case.
In other words if there's an oversupply of renewables the owners of intermittent power may pay ORG
Who knows when aviation comes back? Maybe 2022? What happens if supply and demand adjust without aviation then you call for another 3mbpd of oil? The risk in the oil market 12-18 months out is definitely shortages not oversupply.
ORG Price at posting:
$4.59 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)