I guess VH I agree with Art that the market has it right on the short term there's uncertainty with oil at $65 - a little overcooked.
Either U.S. tight oil producers will practice supply discipline (which seems a joke but you never know) or global demand for oil will continue to increase such that they can drill to the max without any effect.
I think the long-dated part of the oil price curve, they have it wrong.
The best part about investing as Ben Graham taught me is you don't need to be right about these things. If the market is pricing in a pessimistic scenario ($60 Brent for ORG) and it comes to pass you don't lose money.
I figure on balance ORG provides a reasonable safety margin for future uncertainty at this price. Not as generous/hated as I would like but I am quite sure the future isn't as uncertain as people think and are pricing into their sales and purchases of ORG stock.
I would rather buy at an extremely low price than have certainty in a thesis or outlook which could prove wrong. It's important not to overanalyze things.
ORG Price at posting:
$4.59 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)