Believe the recent exercise of the options tells a story of the...

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Cooper20

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27/08/20

09:33

Post #: 46855140
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Originally posted by Danzar: ↑

Just a view on valuing on NPV vs EV/EBITDA (for resource companies at DFS-stage)

Both are good measures. NPV valuation is used when the company is not producing (as you don't have earnings). Once a company is eyeing off earnings near-term, market starts to price it on EV/EBITDA, not NPV.

For NPV, always better for me to go conservative at 30% of NPV. Research reports like 40-50%, which can happen, but you need a very very tight market with a very bullish resource outlook for that.

Companies like ABR that are rolling out their mine in stages can get confusing valuations. The market might look at it on forward NPV at first stage, then EV/EBITDA when first stages are de-risked and earnings are coming, but then you have larger NPVs coming in at later stages that can blow early EV/EBITDA out of the water.

Research reports like to pick the total project NPV and value off that straight away. I agree with it - particularly if a company is doing all of their dev up front - but it's simplistic.

If ABR were going at this with one or two stages, NPV valuation would be much higher, but you would also have significant dilution as there is no way ABR would get to first base without a heap of capital raises. The capex is too high.

I like the strategy and where we are at. I don't see a $3+ valuation right now, but $1+ is around the corner imo.

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Believe the recent exercise of the options tells a story of the recent supply. Hopefully that has dried up now which should enable the price to move further north.

ABR Price at posting: 82.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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