Sjlasx I generally agree with your analysis. The above poster is...

Sjlasx I generally agree with your analysis.
The above poster is correct in that regardless of the production numbers, quality and cost of production, ultimately as a commodity producer they are a price take and so profits will be at the complete mercy of the lithium market over the next 5-10 years, for which LCE price predictions range from 6,000->10,000 usd/t.

the main thing is that ore will not go bust and they are in a strong capital position.

a weak lithium price for the next 6-12months is kind of ideal for ore because it will choke and delay financing for other projects and expansions that havnt yet been funded/ decided upon.

This will lead lead to a likely supply shortage or at worst an equilibrium in 2-3 years, assuming EVs continue to grow according to current trends.

so whilst an exact valuation is nigh impossible, I’m happy to hold and accumulate ore at these levels on the rational likelihood that the cycle will turn in favour of ore which higher prices at the exact time their expansion comes online.

lets hope we end up in a situation like the gold, iron ore gas and coal companies have in the past 2-3 years where they have been the beneficiaries of prolonged high prices and large gross cash margins due to a delayed supply response to rising demand.