Sharing some analysis, interpret as you may...
Chart 1
- price has jumps based on no announcements
- long consolidation periods
Chart 2
- DyeVert FDA clearance sees a minor increase in SP value
- 18/04 Cashflow report show a trailing sell off
- new execs stimulates some correction from quarterly sell down
- 25% variable day on placement announcement
Chart 3
- another quarterly report and another bunch of post sell offs, seen on two quarters in 2018
- there is a period of consolidation post Q1 (26/04) result
- 2nd quarter cashflow is supplemented with a investor newsletter, this looks to abate the sell off which seems regular with quarterly reports
Chart 4
- August investor presso looks to hit the spot in relation to investor expectations, price moves for a while
- sell down sets in followed by consolidation
- quarterly report and the sell off restarts, CRannouncement also causes further sell off. Sense that investors are becomingjaded with cashburn, low income and further dilution
Chart 5
- Dyevert clinical data featured as well as annual report quickly follows, looks like this is taken positively and SP indicates
- Quarterly report and on queue comes sell off,this time its considerable in comparison to other periods
Chart 6
- Sell offcontinues for 12 months
- Lowvolumes through most periods with odd splike
- Quarterly volume spike, the slide continues
Chart 7
- pricestarts to spike on no news and ASX requests a please explain
- theresnothing to note at that time then end of month GE distribution is announced,seems OSP has a few leaks based on this charting
- Once GE announcementcomes out, sell off happens, indicate of buy the rumor, sell the news
- then headinto a sell down, which does look similar to the sell down prior to end June spike
Overall
- Quarterlyreports are not received well, with cash burn and low income you can see why.Though through last few years Osprey have been an R&D company, they nowhave a product and two key distribution channels in Premier Inc and GE so now a sales organisation too.
- From May2019 through to June 2020, shareprice has been considerably oversold due to lowincome and cost of making sales (as stated above). Premier and GE would ordinarily change thatthough COVID hasn’t had that transpire, but not all is lost.
- Though noshown in all the charts there are long periods of consolidation
- Similarto most recent movement, similar occurred in July – Sept 2018, before a consolidation,then quarterly saw a sell off
- Investor newslettersand presentations are well received in general based on price movement post theseevents
- Need to see solid improvements in income tosee north bound movement, there has been cost containment and cash in bank so thatpoints to positive and active management
I remain onboard as I see the Premier Inc and GE distribution agreements as key to income, which is whats needed, COVID is just a hickup which management have derisked somewhat by cost savings activities.
