How do you know there's been no significant shift in the natural cycle? What's the frequency and amplitude of the natural cycle? How do we quantify it if we don't fully understand the climate modes?
There is little question as to the extent of the Tongan volcano output. It added ~10% of total atmospheric water vapour to the system. The problem is, how do you quantify significance when you can't measure the 'pulse' of natural variation?
