yes and no, you have to look at market cap, FRB mkt cap ~ $34M and FFR $32.7M, at the height of FFR pre spinoff, it was at 21 cents double of what it is now, so $60M mkt cap (correct me if I am wrong, i didnt follow it closely, just basic math) so the attribution was half/half.
In FFX, case the Doc is betting on the demerger actually putting a value on the lithium since its pretty much value at $0 at this point (no matter how you spin it).
I am not worried that FFX would go down, because of their performance clause see below:
The Company enters into a sale, joint venture or financing agreement in respect of
the Company’s Goulamina Lithium Project which delivers an implied valuation of at
least AUD100,000,000 for the Goulamina Lithium Project as at the date of execution.
If the Doc and Board want to get their performance shares/options they need to fulfil he $100M sales target, and let just say that currently its at $170M market cap if we use the FRB/FFR logic minus $100M putting the Gold Project at $70M Mkt cap (roughly $20M to $30M of cash which puts the EV for gold at $50M) I dont think anyone would put a $50M price tag on our gold project with everything that is going for it atm (even at current production HAHA). at 60koz to 80koz p.a. in the short term and 120koz - 200koz in the mid to long term (LOM plan coming up) I dont think the share price can fall that much after the demerger.
Hence what the ideal outcome is when we demerge the FFX actually stays roughly the same or goes up (depending on the record date/valuation of new lithium company) and then shareholders get a free ride in the new entity i.e. effectively double.
Also referring to the performance clause it says $100M valuation of the Goulamina Lithium Project, now we are spinning out a ready to develop project, there has has to be a combination of debt financing/offtakes/equity for JV partner to take it on. Remember that $100M valuation is for the Goulamina and not the New Lithium Company there is a difference, you might be asking why is that important, well, if the JV partner wants to fund the plant lets just say $100M Cash (just for easy math sakes). The split for JV partner, FFX Holders and Mali Gov, have to be so that the attribution of value for the holders has to value our contribution (i.e. Goulamina Project at least $100M), which means the Market Cap of the Company would have to be at least $200M ($100M Cash + $100 M goulamina). and if the split was 40:40:20, that puts the mkt cap of the new co at $250M.
MTC and SRK arent developed ready yet (i.e. still exploring/defining) hence lower mkt cap expectations
What I am trying to say is, if we demerge as the lithium is currently valued at 0, any positive is a good thing, and using the director performance clause as a floor, you can see that there is a incentive to pull the deal the right way.,
Basically the situation I am hoping for is a ALK/ASM situation where ALK was at $400M mkt cap roughly when announcing their intention to demerge, 20th May 2020 (ALK Share price 85 cents on average i believe, roughly $500M, its currently $430M mkt cap., 72 cents but like gold prices have decreased since May 2020), shareholders got 1 free ASM share for every 5 ALK shares, and that $1.40 share price on the first trading day (but now trading at ($5.05 per share) and ASM is at $720M mkt cap atm.
So if you held 10,000 ALK shares:
Premerge (announce intention): 20 May 2020, 10,000 ALK shares = $8,500 (85 cents share price)
Post demerge: 30 July 2020, 10,000 ALK shares ($12,000) and 2,000 ASM shares ($2,800) = $14,800
Today: 10,000 ALK shares ($7,200) and 2,000 ASM shares ($10,100) i.e. in total $17,300, i.e. doubling your pre merge value at today's prices.
Obviously a very simplified view of i.e. their could be events that caused the price to go up and down during the whole time but demerger achieved what it supposed to do which was to attribute value to both projects and to progress both opportunities concurrently.
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