Thanks @BaliHai, agree with much of that post. To be clear I'm...

Thanks @BaliHai, agree with much of that post. To be clear I'm not suggesting there is JV weakness, it's just one of two risks that would make sense of selling out at 30c. I can't know if a large holder has been selling down or their intentions for the rest of their holdings, which is the other risk that makes sense of selling at 30c. In no way am I saying these risks are likely.

I raise these two risks only because that's the only reasons I can think of for why sellers would keep turning up in volume at these prices and why enough buyers wouldn't. Otherwise this sell down does not surprise me given delays, known bad news, lack of any demonstrable buying from the Sydney roadshow, and the reality of technical trading (which cares not for fundamental valuation).

Downtrends become self-fulfilling for the reasons @Drillingholes mentioned, and they only stop when enough buying support turns it around. I'm on record saying 30-32c was the probable support channel with enough 'long-term' value to attract buying volume required to stop the downtrend. Once the market sees more technical downside is unlikley, traders flip to become buyers and ride the virtuous cycle (replacing the vicious cycle) back up. That's why so many follow technical signals.

Of course, it's one thing trading in and out, quite another averaging down when you're already long and wrong. Never seen averaging down into falling stocks creating an oversize position recommended as investment strategy for good reason. Risk management and capital preservation are rules number 1, 2 and 3. There in lies the root SFX problem imo. The market largely doesn;t know or care about min sand investments, those that do and like the SFX story are already long.... few believers are willing to increase holdings so new buyers are required to support the price. Buyers that are obviously hard to drum up in the face of delays, few news drivers, and the ever present risk of a market correction between now and years end when BFS is clear and FID bedded down.

I'll consider reaching out the Bruce, in the mean time changing my sentiment to Buy for the first time since June 2019. For new buyers I'm comfortable, otherwise please consider position size because risks exist and nothing is ever certain in the market.

Cheers