Perhaps. We just don't know how they played the game.
The announcement today shows they bought all the way down from the 60s
and were accumulating massively every time they (and we) thought it had bottomed.
At 41-42c they drew a line in the sand and said - nah - we're willing to defend our investment here and bought anything that entered their zone.
Galaxy was hanging tough in the low 40s. Bored maybe but it was just a matter of time.
Nothing seemed able to get close to 40c and it was tantalisingly close (with a treasure trove of likely stop-losses hanging on it) that it caused a short pile up and 2% (38m-ish) of shorts got added for effectively 1c reduction in shared price. Absolutely classic bear trap play and they timed acquisition to perfection so just as they were ready to cross the Subholder threshold they were confident that their position was set - and the shorts were so compressed into a couple of cents that it would go off like Guy Fawkes Night. The sad reality is that there were probably more than a few million shorts added today that all had to quickly chase the price to cover, adding more pain to the existing ones on the market.
Black Rock aboard is like Barack Obama moving in next door. Everyone can see the line of SUVs parked on the street now. Other instos take their cues from these guys. Expect a few reversals of acquisition policy from some more Australian funds.
btw: Galaxy had already appeared on the top 10 list for Commsec's growth stocks last week so perhaps the rumours were already circulating.
Take a look at BR's holdings and reputation - its like a fully stuffed trophy cabinet of the biggest A list stocks.
They jumped in here with the shipment confirmation.
And there lies the chasm between production and speculation. Exactly what we thought would happen has happened. Production would bring the bigger players on board.
It is one thing to promise the earth (whilst your money is still locked away in it underground) and another to successfully negotiate all the steps in building a profitable enterprise and then making money.
Galaxy got the tick for joining the ranks of actual suppliers, not drillers.
Even Mac banks latest report gives kudos to GXY and projects higher pricing on the back of their unique independent status for the next 2 years. This status provides the opportunity - not to just take a price - but to keep pushing it as far as the laws of supply and demand will allow.
Perhaps BR know a little more about what is happening next in Galaxy, or perhaps just the same as us - but either way the timing was superb. It won't be quite as easy post-consolidation to acquire large positions at leisure, without significantly pushing the share price.
Yes - it will be interesting with short positions. They seemed ready to drill this down but now the biggest insto of the them all has rocked up. One that has shown that it can pick up 10m shares in a day, without so much as breaking a sweat. Shorters may well rethink how effective it is to leave shorts on the market for longer than a few minutes now that BR has signalled a significant position.
Well done to the patient holders who have grabbed a few more down in the depths.
Good luck.
