outlook for 2009

Got this from Australian Agricultural Co, which was released this information to the market today.

Outlook for 2009

In direct contrast to 2008 the five key earnings drivers for the business in 2009 have all trended very positively:

• In 2009 year to date, AAco’s stations have received more rainfall than in all of 2008. The resulting pasture will underpin cattle production for 2009 and into 2010. However, resulting floods increase the risk of stock losses and damage to plant and equipment. Such potential losses are factored into the Company’s budgeting assumptions and insurance programmes (on plant and equipment) where applicable.

• Feed grain costs which account for 20-25% of total cattle operating costs have more than halved from their peak of over $400 per tonne.

• During 2008, fuel costs doubled due to additional mustering, transport and water pumping required during the worst of the drought. Oil prices have since collapsed from their peak of US$145 per barrel to as low as US$35 per barrel.

• The Australian dollar is currently trading around US$0.64, restoring the competitiveness of beef exports in Japan, USA and Korea.

• Finally interest rates have reduced significantly in the past five months reducing the company’s average cost of funds.

The Meat and Livestock Association is forecasting beef prices to rise during 2009 as a consequence of herd rebuilding constraining young cattle supplies.

Seems that GS's tactic of with-holding cattle from sale, the consequent "shortfall" that this engineered, the requirement for a top up from investors and the general panic and confusion of "Project Transform" has had its desired effect. Valuable cattle exchanged for equity at over 70% discount.

Compare AAco view of 2009 to that of GTP.

Was GTP's outlook that was disclosed in "Project Transform" designed to mislead or deceive the cattle investors?