Outlook for the O&G industry., page-19

Life's a beach sometimes.

The markets will go much lower. This is bigger than the GFC, more global than the GFC and is going to be less predictable than the GFC. Get out of the stock markets and come back when the full impacts of the recessions are over. There are still a lot of insolvencies, bailouts, ring fencing before this is over and all the while the man on the street will deleverage in response to deteriorating circumstances. The Fed has cut the stock market loose, the bakers half dozen of urgent measures and facilities rolled out this week and since Sept last year are just designed to stop the credit market freeze, the repo market freeze and allow the banks to provide urgent liquidity in the face of redemptions. The big stock peddlers, Vanguard, Blackrock and JP Morgan asked for the markets to be closed. What more reason do you need to get out?

The real bargains will come at the bottom of the stock market which will be found at levels lower than when Trump was inaugurated and possibly after the markets are shut down during the next leg down. Equity markets are still in bubble territory and can't be re-inflated from this point, all FA arguments are meaningless until the bottom is found and all PEs will readjust down no matter if you have a good company or bad. The re-establishment of sensible values won't occur on the way down, it will only happen once everything has settled and the markets are recapitalised and functioning properly again.

The economy will trump any printed money that is thrown at the financial system for at least 6 months. Sell everything go enjoy some down time in the lock downs if you live where the virus spikes and come back after 6 months, or however long it takes, to pick through the rubble.

Hillary was right in Sept 2016 and so was Trump. Both right, trickle down doesn't work and only ends in helicopter money and the markets are big fat ugly bubbles. The energy play was a great play in 2016, but a simpler play, and will be a no brainer again this time around but this time it's not as simple as last time. It's a more complex play this time than just hanging on the whim of some Saudi prince blindsiding people at a Doha meeting. Esh