Outperform - Macquarie, page-21

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NoLeafClover

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02/07/23

20:09

Post #: 68577015
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Originally posted by Timber7: ↑

I dont really understand what you are trying to say to be honest. NIC produces NPI in the main, yet you appear to be saying that the thing which the company produces is not a primary factor in your analysis? Everything the company does hinges on the thing it produces. It worth a considerable amount of analysis so you can understand the LT trend as well as timing of your investment.

Super majors make bad business decisions all the time. I've lost count of these projects within BHP. Indeed, it has yet to fully grapple with the idea of the energy transition and how the company can pivot to it toymaker the most of it. It's tied down by the old world mantra of traditional industrial metals and instead is focussing on copper and nickel, rather than lithium, graphite and rare earths to name a few. This has given rise to the LYCs and IGOs to name a couple. This is despite the multi generational movement towards materials associated with the energy transition. Selling its O&G was a sensible first step, but it's a classic example of inaction and poor strategic execution. I mention it because super majors make mistakes.

Likewise, NIC and its partners can make errors. Whilst growth is good, timing is also important. You could say the capital structure of NIC reflects mgmt confidence however my view is that they have been too hasty. It going to be a 1-2rs before we see any meaningful benefits from the last 12mths. They should be prioritising costs and bringing down debt at this time. This is a high inflationary environment with low growth. It's almost as though NIC feel obligated to do a deal when Tsingshan present it to them and I feel like NIC is now an alternative financing arm and entity that is willing to take the assets that Tsingshan doesn't really want.

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Pretty sure most people invested in NIC are betting on the macro growth in nickel demand being the primary driver of share price growth, and gauging its worth based on current present-day suppressed nickel prices in the short term is kind of missing the point

it's an increasingly critical mineral & NIC continuing to pivot away from just NPI positions them very well given the size of the resources at their disposal

doesn't mean anyone should be surprised if things are grim for the next 6-12 months as the global economy goes into a lull

NIC Price at posting: 88.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 80.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $3.450B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
80.0¢	81.0¢	79.5¢	$2.881M	3.585M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	19275	80.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
81.0¢	20701	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	19275	0.805
9	292956	0.800
4	132219	0.795
6	131951	0.790
4	132537	0.785

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.810	20701	3
0.815	246446	10
0.820	78840	3
0.825	172418	7
0.830	115437	5

Last trade - 16.10pm 30/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

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Outperform - Macquarie, page-21

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Outperform - Macquarie, page-21

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