AWE is definately outperforming other oilers as the oil price has headed down. Investors see the large upside in AWE and that it is calculated in $US. Therefore the SP has not been affected as much as many oilers....
In saying that I was dissappointed that the SP has been stranded between 2.60 to 2.80 for so long. Even when oil headed towards $80US...now around $70. No difference is really reflected in the SP from the price of oil in the ST.
The upside to AWE in numerous projects is too great to see the SP fall greatly. Although if oil heads below $60 then it will have an affect- IMO...
As they can only hold on to their millions of barrels of oil for so long b4 then need to sell for cashflow. Although they can hold on more than many other oilers out there due to there good cash position.
I bought at 2.6 then sold at 2.8 as oil began to drop. Then when oil high I bought at 2.8 and it headed down to 2.6. So it has been difficult to work out in the ST.
In the medium to LT they are one of the few oilers who have revenue under 12-13 PE. With such a strong upside in further exploration. Combined with a strong and experienced Management team they seem like very good value when compared to its peers...
Going forward AWE looks like it will keep a low PE of approx 12 in 2010 without further upside in exploration. Yet further upside is 'probable' in 2010. AWE is a good safe bet- IMO- for modest to agressive growth in 2010.
I see very little downside except if the oil price dramatically falls in 2010. Which is highly unlikely... IMO- AWE is priced only to current production levels with very little enterprise upside value. It will be highly unlikely if they do not have any upside in exploration in 2010---IMO.
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