Outsource - Cost / Benefit Discussion

Hey all,

I am having a back of the envelope crack at forecasting profitability of each next gen Hx machine.
Importantly this is not financial advice. This is just my opinion only and do not rely on any part of this analysis.

H03 claimed to build 20 to 40 times faster than a manual bricklayer, refer to FBR presentation dated 28th March 23.
Average cost of an Australian bricklayer showing on Google = $55 per hour.
At 20 times cost of bricklayer FBR can charge = $55 x 20 = $1,100 / hr
At 40 times cost of bricklayer FBR can charge = $55 x 40 = 2,200 / hr
Allowing for 20% builder cost reduction, and 80% utilization level, FBR can charge 0.8*0.8*$2,200=$1,408 / hr
Allowing for 8 hour build and including the additional cost of extra levelling of slap and rectification of blocks, FBR can earn ($1,408*8)-$400-$400=$10,464 per day.
Allowing for 200 houses built per year, FBR can charge $10,464*200=$2,092,800 per year.

Allowing for $2.5m cost of machine and 30% cost of financing / yr (to cover WAAS funding partner) FBR will expense = $2,500,000*0.3=$750,000 per machine / yr.
Allowing for servicing costs and running costs / yr = $25,000, machine Service/Running and Capital costs = $750,000+$25,000=$775,000 / Yr.

Estimated Operating Profit / machine / yr = $2,092,800-$775,000=$1,317,800.
ROI = $1,317,800 / 2,500,000 = 52.7%.

Of course, this is my estimated incremental profit per machine.
Enough machines would need to be manufactured for the incremental cost to cover HQ OPEX of FBR to turn a profit.
But in my view, with economics like this, it shouldn't bee too hard to find incremental WAAS funding partners.

This is not an exact science.
My analysis could be drastically wrong and should not be relied upon for any reason. Do your own research, etc etc.

I am interested to hear your thoughts on this.
If you feel a number is not correct, add some value by saying what you think I have gotten wrong based on your judgement and why.

Happy hunting. Bring on the future. Go FBR!!!!