Tails,
The market doesn’t like surprises and Commander announced a significant EBITDA downgrade shortly after being so positive about their franchise model. But just because they underestimated the impact of the franchise setup, doesn’t detract from the feasibility of the business model itself.
Commander's explanation for the 15M lower EBITDA (franchises concentrating on their own setup instead of sales) is sound.
Franchises established for 6 months are already returning Commander a 131% sales benefit.
The 16M restructuring cost is one off and will return an ongoing 16M per annum saving.
The Volante Group acquisition provides Commander access to the high margin services enterprise market.
Commander has a broad range of products and services, national coverage and good brand awareness.
Well positioned for capitalising on the continued convergence of voice and data in the SMB market.
At the current stock price Commander is a serious takeover target.
Investor confidence should have completely recovered by 1H 2008.
The bottom line is - Will Commander’s franchise model deliver? I think it has excellent potential and hence I view this stock as currently under valued.
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