over excited

Hi I have had a read through all this and was not as impressed as others seem to be. so thought i would post my in depth views of what is in play and what the short term future may hold for this stock.

firstly, everyone is focusing on the UK play, from what i understand with this play it is years from happening, and it has to be years away as they have no money to even do this. So i cant see this adding any value to the company for the next couple years.

but i think there is a reason why this is getting a lot of air time - its a old trick played a lot on the ASX - will explain further down.


To me it looks like the plan / focus is on the WA play, aiming to do this towards end of year. this is what you need to focus on first as this will probably pay for the UK play.

now what is the deal here? 30 mm bbl oil

how many well's will they need to drill, what will the flow rates be?

if they need to drill 10 well's then they could need $20mil or more for drilling.

problem is they are totally broke.

I think NWE is hyping up the media to get the stock price up, the reason I think they are getting the stock price up is we are going to hit capital raising.

and this is not something new to NWE, a year ago they had 200 million shares, today they have nearly 600 million. so paying their way by constantly diluting the stock. and now they need money again.

in all fairness there could be 1.2 billion shares on issue by the end of the year.. thats getting too diluted for me.

and what with this WA play? shale oil by memory does not flow that fast, it drops quite fast from initial drilling, after diluting the stock to 1.2bil they may only have $20mil P.A in revenue from the WA play.

with a PE of 6 thats 12c share price, in possibly 2 years time..

I think from here they will then move to the UK after all the red tape has been sorted.

I've decided to watch this stock, but wont consider investing in it due to:

1) WA project is not going to increase value of the stock after dilution.
2) stock is going to be diluted heaps through cap raising
3) stock will be very diluted by the time the UK play comes.
4) UK play could be 3 years away.


I will re assess when they look at the UK play, if anyone thinks i have over looked anything please let me know