over reaction ?, page-6

Closed flat at 16.25 in London. Tried to break 20p but sold off at the end. Over 7m shares traded. That's about 20% since Friday morning.

While it was a down day in London for miners generally, I think NGX is now decoupled from the market.

I am sure Barry is a true believer and as an aside the share price on his 2.5m options needs to be $1.25 in 2013 for them to vest. Anyone know what the gold price will be in 2 years?

I think the biggest issue is the confidence of the major shareholders. One suspects they would not be happy after stumping up twice at 45p and now holding (a big maybe?) at almost 1/3 that.

Hard to see the company being able to manage a 3rd CR with the SP so low. There are "cheap" shares a plenty on ASX and AIM for anyone who wants them.

In any case they have raised $34m since Oct with $16m in Feb. The MC is now just $68m?

The quarterly forecast has gone from 65k, confirmed only 2 months ago to 55-60k on Friday. That's -15% if they hit the low end and there is not much reason to afford them benefit of the doubt.

On balance there's a lot to fix including confidence in Friday's forecast.