heremes, some scattered observations... the monthly rsi14 is...

heremes, some scattered observations... the monthly rsi14 is interesting... looking back to 1984 or so.. if you bought when the rsi crossed over 50 to a higher number and sold when it crossed back to below 50 and did nothing else you'd be a very rich person... this would be a better system than the 50 ma... the 200 ma doesn't work because it only just kicks in in 2002.. sp500 not that old..

on the weekly.. the parabolic nature of the recent rise is most apparent... that is, the increasing steepness of the curve towards the vertical... and what it shows that i hadn't noticed before is that if it wasn't for Fridays strong close on the spx then the index would show a uncertainty doji for the week.. one of these + ... its the biggest sign of weakness for 4 weeks but still green... but if you look at the weekly 200ma... its a magnificent monster really... it turned up from May 2005 and is looking pretty damn healthy... but the volatility as measured by the atr... its really really sus... and its what most of us traders are thrown by and complaining about... its just unbelievably low and stable on an historical basis... has been pretty much for at least 3 years... it just smacks of engineering... a bit like damming of a river that used to have rapids.. IF this holds, you could pretty safely buy a long futs contract or 20 and put them in the bottom drawer... no risk.. I wonder if we traders aren't now using a paradigm of volatility that has been made redundant by .. something... but if the volatility has been dammed by engineering... will it hold?

on the daily... well, what else do futs trades look at except the hourly and the 5 min.. lol ... its all uncertainty...

cheers!