Hello Shadow,
Your friendly neighbourhood Walrus here.
I feel like $550 is a little low on the estimate. Competing companies in the lithium sector (namely Galaxy Resources, GXY) have recently sold their white gold for over $900USD/tonne. Marvellous, isn't it?
Using those figures it's clear that PLS is going to be profitable, even with some margin of error.
The truth is that nobody knows what the future will hold. The oversupply debate I believe to be easily debunked - look at how many cars are replaced annually around the world and then multiply that by 40kg of lithium (avg lithium used per car). It's the equivalent of thousands of times the current annual Australian production of lithium, without even accounting for home storage. I doubt oversupply will be an issue and this should maintain or even increase lithium price in future, meaning better margins for PLS and others.
Continue your research, esp into management of company by Ken Brinsden and his team, I think you will find your money feels safe here for the next ten + years.
My own estimated share price is minimum $1.50 in the next couple of years and probably more as the EV and home storage revolution ramps up.
Another sector which may be of interest to you is Vanadium as Vanadium battery technology is growing rapidly too - a very interesting battery compared to lithium. I'd recommend a look.
Best of luck,
Sincerely,
Your friendly neighbourhood Walrus.
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