Dr. Redhead's report is officially published on IMM website now.
Yes, estimated $8BN peak sales! (I believe by the time EFTI is commercialised, the sales number will be much higher, simply because there is no much other choice. In 2017, from my memory, people only gave a $5ish billion sales number for Keytruda initially and look how it is now.)
My take is that no one at the moment is going to submit THE offer to IMM pre-maturely. If they put in say 2-3BN and got rejected, they lose the position as water got splashed.
The offer might come after solidation with data published and once it come, the number is going to hit hard. (just to remember, each one billion of offer on the MC, is converted to A$1.2 in share price)
From other perspectives, short selling is not active for quite a while with the daily short sell volume is just not even 100K for a day.
Correspondingly, the accumulated shorted position which speaking to hedging play, has been done upto May this year (yellow) and as we entered Jun, the play is more like de-hedging (green). I think the hedge fund is not tend to fire any heavy short play from now on.
When it comes to the share price keep dropping since early March, even with great data keep coming, I believe that has been true sell down. This is very strategic selling, with a very long term MACD divergence, not very easy to make a chart like this. With IMM's pipeline, EFTI is the only viable product for now and every step of the catalyst point, the company has made an announcement of what and when to come. So the action of this company is so predictable (not like IMU, 5 diffferent products to judge and much more difficult to time the data readout points). Someone(s) have been taking this opportunity to really time the selling of IMM very well to push the price down (most likely hedge funds). By doing that, they have reduced their risk if they were holders before the big drop, or have created the buy opportunity from now, or actually both. From the daily trading pattern, a lot of the half step trades have been executed everyday as testing whether there is a big buy or a big sell from each side (if there is one the half step would not be seen on the trade, it would fall into one side). In a lot of the cases, a big sell chunk can be seen followed by a bunch of half step trades and that is how the price has been dropped for the time being. However, the daily trade volume has been much lower than last year.
Even with positive news on the day, volume can be only 2-3mil. Last year, on the news day, volume was easily 10+mil on a day. So by this type of play, the cost against reward ratio is definitely great overall.
Anyway, I think this long term divergent trend has to come to an end at some stage.
Last but not the least, I look at the troll activities on hotcopper here and if we count them statistically, the trolls are actually telling something.
In 2019-2020 on AVH, 2019-present on BRN, 2020-present on WBT, 2020-present on IMU, the similarity on these ones is that they are all speculative stock without income at that stage; all having good fundemental during that time; all undergone re-rating process with price going up heavily; all having lots of trolls messing around on hotpper. We have this 'ghost' boy playing here for a while lately, not heavy trolling though (the trade activities on IMM is not so big either, i guess not many trolls would be interested playing here.). I do not usually engage any conversation with these guys but not put them on ignore list eigher. Instead, increased trolling activities are hinting something would be surface soonish, just simply by the statistic numbers.
Anyway, IMM is ready for things to come all angles. If we need to put a number on the DEAL when it comes, we really need to use our imagination very hard.
(20min delay)
