@SouthernAccent There is undeniably real disconnect between “the...

@SouthernAccent There is undeniably real disconnect between “the promise” of the science, the clinical outcomes achieved so far, the language used by the Co and by almost every analyst examining it, and our expectations for the value of the company versus what the market is still pricing it at. It is perplexing and, I agree, quite faith destroying.

I’ve just tried to examine above what might be the underlying cause, and while it makes logical sense that someone with the option of more shares via converted Notes and warrants would want to hold on too for share price appreciation, the reality is that outfits like Ridgeback are not conviction holders. They are primarily finance/capital providers, in it to make a buck, and then to get out. The field for them is large, biotechs are always hungry for money and slow to deliver. So converting their final batch of Notes into ordinaries here and selling for anything above 17c appears, from my calcs, to cover their original investment, plus the interest due under the terms of the Notes, and nets them a fairly good profit for every cent above 17c.

To illustrate: their Notes with interest are 17c at conversion, so today’s share price delivers them a 50% return on investment (on top of the original 3% interest) if they are indeed selling into it/our handbrake. Keeping us largely at a 25c+ floor (by slowing or accelerating sales from day to day) also seems smart as it ensures their warrants (ex 24.8c) will still be in the money when the Notes conversion is exhausted. Everything then is a cherry on the top for Ridgeback.

I guess time (and filings) will tell if this is what has been going on. It is certainly suppressing/distorting the share price compared to expectations, but still allows a very profitable and orderly exit for them. It has to end sometime.