There may be a dead cat bounce later this week. But overall this announcement today was a 'CEO reset' in my view by the recently appointed CEO. The CEO is cleaning the whiteboard and the game-plan from this year for FY22 so that it may be constructed with as little lay-over baggage from 2021. A large amount of the recent EBITDA hit was non-cash and the majority were one-offs. Investors can read into this and decide how this effects their forward PE's and personal appetite moving into the stock now.
It's been stated today in the announcement that the hit to EBITDA came from:
1. The lower than expected sales in 4Q21 versus prior plan and the further actions being taken to rebalance the channels by actively reducing sales in May/June; "Clean slate evidence number 1"
2. A stock provision of approximately $80 million to $90 million which is in addition to the $23 million stock provision recognised in 1H21. This includes costs to dispose of excess inventory in a controlled and sustainable manner. "Clean slate evidence number 2"
Also, a high level of marketing investment is continuing with a significant marketing campaign in China in 4Q21- and marketing investment will be increased, particularly in digital marketing, to help drive consumer demand. "Clean slate evidence and momentum shift number 3"
So - it really comes down to ones opinion of the brand, which I for one feel is extremely strong and proven. I am happy with the clean slate approach and imminent momentum shift within marketing and channel review. I will continue to accumulate in this downtrend.
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