oversold says the market !!, page-9

JR,

I take it you read the independently compiled report of the Tindalo failure, or at least the part that refers to the possible reason/s for the watercut.

I posted at the time they were getting so much watercut so quickly that the cause was most likely fracture swarms, a phenomenon found in some carbonates, so it could have been that, as noted in the ind. review.

As for leak into the annulus past the bottom hole cement plug they installed before going into the sidetrack, well it could have been this too.
There was a possibility of this happening as, during the initial exploration drill, they had heavy mud losses near the bottom of the well which I believe they were not able to stem at the time. From memory they gave up and just suspended the well for future dev.

If they'd sidetracked above the 9-5/8" casing shoe instead of below it, we'd probably know what caused the watercut...this is what makes it so risky to have another dig.

I'd say the biggest risk to the Galoc operation at the moment is the current typhoon and it damaging a vessel, but I don't think it's a very big risk at all really.

If you were around during the drilling of Galoc PhI, you'd know that the big problem there prior to production start up was a badly damaged riser section and buoy mooring due to typhoon damage.
By the time they got that sorted they found they had installed some sub standard s/steel subsea valves...corrosion. Another wait while the new hardware was procured and installed. All from memory but it should be close.

Pretty much all glitches in the system since then have been eliminated, most to do with the FPSO and it's connection and anchoring.

I'm not expecting any problems with the start up of PhII other than I'm expecting it to come online early Dec rather than late Nov.

I'd give it over 90% chance.

IMO