There�s no negative news that we�re aware of on OGC, noting we recently factored in the guided NZ cash cost increase. However, we do see some upcoming positive catalysts:
1) 1Q�CY11:
* Reefton�s, Souvenir open pit Ore Reserve to potentially be pre-released January 2011. * We expect +20% Ore Reserve growth at its NZ operations (primarily from Reefton Goldfield and optimisation for other NZ operations from higher gold price assumption (moving from US$800/oz to US$950/oz)). We would expect this to be released early February * New CEO Mick Wilkes is on board (officially starts in February). * We see CY10 Result could beat consensus, and expect release late February/early March.
2) Late 1Q/Early 2Q CY11:
* If Resource growth is material, and we expect this is more than likely, OGC will release a revised Reefton 43-101 Technical Report, including mine plan and cost profile o This will be important as it will hopefully reinforce our view that a mine life extension from Reefton production is indeed possible. o We expect this to add 3 years mine life out to CY17, and see this as a positive catalyst for de-risking Reefton Goldfield operations.
3) 2Q�CY11:
o Infill drilling of Round Hill open pit complete in preparation for studies (no Ore Reserve, but 1.44Moz Mineral Resource at present)
o Globe Deeps studies completed by end quarter in preparation for mining, noting that Globe is currently being mined.
4) Mid year Didipio site visit, we expect this to:
o help reinforce untapped value in Didipio exploration � potential for further porphyry discoveries from 12 targeted anomalies that are currently being mapped and surveyed in preparation for drilling during 2011.
o Provide an update on construction progress, we would expect progress details are released to market well ahead of the visit
We maintain our buy recommendation and $4.60/share PT, it�s now our #3 pick of gold and coppers under coverage. We see the price weakness as a very good buying opportunity.
OGC Price at posting:
$2.67 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held