“Mr Michelmore unsettled some by saying the nickel price (then $US7.17 a pound) raised concerns about the profitability of end users, the stainless steel manufacturers.”
End of bull run for base metals - prices and stocks thumped By Barry FitzGerald October 15, 2004
Australia's leading miners were crunched on the sharemarket after an overnight rout in base metals markets, triggered in part by downbeat comments on the outlook for metal prices by the miners themselves. The rout brought to an abrupt end the 26-month bull run in base metals prices that had been fuelled by seemingly insatiable demand from China. But fresh concerns about the pace of growth in China - one report cited a 21 per cent fall in its copper consumption in July - and the impact of record oil prices on the global economy prompted heavy selling by hedge funds and other speculators. Commonwealth Bank commodity strategist David Thurtell said "metals were smashed overnight as the funds took some money off the table". He said the same funds had driven prices well past "fundamental" levels in the first place. Prices of key metals fell by as much as 17 per cent in the pace-setting London market, prompting a sell-off in both the leading miners and the Australian dollar to account for the country's reduced export revenue from the sector. The dollar closed weaker at US72.62c, down on the previous close of US72.97c but up from the session's low of US72.15c. The share price of sector leader BHP Billiton yesterday dived 63c to $13.97, Rio Tinto plunged $1.20 to $36.80 and WMC Resources tumbled 33c to $4.96. Zinifex fell 8c to $1.99 and Oxiana closed 2c weaker at 85c. Those falls were in response to the heavy falls in base metals - copper down 9.9 per cent to $US1.32 a pound, aluminium down 6.6 per cent to US80.1c a pound, nickel down 16.7 per cent to $US5.97 a pound and zinc down 7.3 per cent to US47.9c a pound. Some of those falls were the biggest single-day retreats in 15 years. The profits of the leading miners are highly sensitive to movements in base metals prices. BHP Billiton highlighted that earlier in the week by revealing that a US1c movement could move its net annual profit by $US22 million. Copper fell by more than US14c a pound in the rout. The attack on base metal prices came as producers and traders assembled in London for a week-long conference sponsored by the London Metal Exchange. Representatives from BHP Billiton's base metals division and WMC chief executive Andrew Michelmore separately added to the nervousness on metal prices. BHP Billiton spooked the copper market when it said world copper production would surpass demand in the second half of 2005. Mr Michelmore unsettled some by saying the nickel price (then $US7.17 a pound) raised concerns about the profitability of end users, the stainless steel manufacturers.