oversold $$$, page-19

re: not waving drowning Swannell agrees.

Of the thousands of equities, indexes, and commodities tested, Swannell's team found that in about 65% of the cases, Elliott Wave theory proved too unreliable to be used to trade with any degree of confidence. In other words, using the theory to trade the instruments included in this 65% would prove a losing proposition. It means that traders should limit their focus to the 35% that proved to be viable trading candidates.


But why did only about one-third of the candidates work using Elliott? It has to do with the basis of the Elliott principle, which quantifies market crowd behavior. Elliott Wave theory works best in equities that (1) have lots of volume (liquidity) and (2) move according to key forces of fear and greed on the part of many participants. When a security is not prone to this crowd behavior and is controlled instead by a few strong hands, Elliott patterns begin to break down. Issues traded by a few are more subject to manipulation and control, therefore are more difficult to forecast.