Definitely a fair point Volf, so I've tried to take it into consideration below:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Segment EBIT % of Total 1 Franchise Operations 4,324,440 11.58% 2 Store Operations 3,600,666 9.64% 3 FS - Administration 2,509,945 6.72% 4 FS - Personal Loans 26,898,855 72.05% 5 Vehicle Financing – 0.00% 6 Total 37,333,906 7 8 Corporate Overheads, Annualised (34,059,958) 9 10 Francise Ops Store Ops 11 Segment EBITDA 8,718,798 11,179,644 12 Less: Depreciation & Amortisation (87,918) (3,978,312) 13 Less: Portion of Corporate Costs (1,972,607) (3,284,910) 14 EBIT 6,658,273 3,916,422 15 Less: Interest – – 16 NPBT 6,658,273 3,916,422 17 Less: Tax (30%) (2,043,732) (1,251,946) 18 NPAT 4,614,541 2,664,476 19 Add: Depreciation & Amortisation 87,918 3,978,312 20 FCF, pre WC adjustments 4,702,459 6,642,788 21 22 Annualised, NPAT 7,279,017 23 Sector Multiple, per Commsec 13.98 24 Valuation 101,760,657
The allocation of Corporate Overheads is a function of the % contribution of each division to EBIT excluding Vehicle Financing, with a 50% haircut for the Franchise Ops figure as I believe it's overstated (the role of Franchisor is typically very hands off).
So if we work off my original (and arbitrary) 10x multiple we arrive at around $72M and if we use a sector multiple it's closer to $101M. Now if we further assume that the Personal Loans EBIT falls to around 50% of it's annual figure (so approx. what's in the FY17 report) that implies that the market is pricing a $24M a year business at almost the same price ($123M[current MC] - $101M), or around $50M is we work off the 10x multiple. Multiples of 1-2x even when taking into consideration such a significant cut to EBIT appears like a decent margin of safety.
But that being said, I think sentiment is driving the price here. And given that there is no reason why the QLD case shouldn't be successful - it's looks identical to the one successful in NSW - I do agree with you that it remains too risky an entry point.
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