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26/08/14
18:00
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Originally posted by Freehold
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The market will tend to do the opposite of what the bulk of people expect... The bulk of peoples views now are that more delays are expected... I don't see a delay on the plan "yet". Let me explain putting on my project managers hat.
My understanding is that long lead time items are have already been ordered and on the way ... So the real question is the start of production in Q1 2015 to be delayed or not ...
From last Qtrly ... "...An aggressive schedule has been agreed aiming for completion of the transaction facilitating the availability of debt funds by end Quarter three. Timely closure on the debt is on critical path and a key milestone that drives the Stage 1 project schedule. ..."
I assume that the FML/Finance being a milestone on the list of critical path jobs (the longest thread of dependent of jobs before the project can complete) has a date around the end of Q3 end of Oct....so if delayed beyond this time will mean delay in mine start...
At the moment the Company is sticking with the Q1 2015 start date which to me says FML/Finance is on the critical path but it's delay is not yet moving the project end date..... but will if not done by end of Q3.
So the bottom line for me is that although some here are fretting about the date of the FML/Finance... for me I'm not bothered ...well not until its delayed past it's "planned latest delivery date" which appears to be on or around End of Oct . If not delivered by then ...the whole project starts to get delayed as its a key milestone on the critical path on the plan which will have multiple dependent tasks that cannot go ahead until its completed.
So ... Now is not the time to worry ... is all still appears to be within the allowed task "free float" of the project schedule and still allows the mine to come in on time . I think its rather a expectations mismatch been shareholders and management which could be clarified with a publication of a broad project plan with key milestone dates.
Until advised otherwise ...We are 6 approx months from a operating mine churning out $70m odd of profits a year for stage 1 ...There is a worldwide copper shortfall expected to hit about the same time which is expected to raise the price of copper so expect a corresponding increase in AVB profit. When the copper price starts to rise it will make all cu companies rise also .. those closer to or in production will see the largest rise.
So if the 5-10th of November arrives and no FML or Finance has been announced then the project end date is simply moving a day for each day it is not delivered.
Pretty simple really ...
All is IMHO DYOR to Confirm
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Freehold,
The last time we saw a Q1 2015 start date was in the Q1 Activities Report. This was dependent on a FML and Ore Reserve in Q2 so that finance could be triggered in Q3. The Q2 Activities Report dropped any mention of a start date and moved the expected date for the FML and Ore Reserve to Q3.
A $50 million plant will take at least a year to build best case based on a typical project that costs $50 million.