I didn't get back to on this straight away. My previously posted timetable wasn't intended to alarm. Instead it was intended to give some posters a reality check. Some may infer that my timetable has some ulterior motive. But as a medium size holder, I can assure you that I want AVB to succeed but at the same time I want everyone to be aware of the downside as well as the upside.
The events that did or didn't happen so far in 2014 can be debated as being caused by inside or outside reasons. That is a separate issue when we are dealing with the timetable going forward but obviously past performance is a factor to be considered.
I have worked on all sorts of construction sites throughout my career.
From $10,000 private concrete driveways to $9 billion Gas Plants.
A 4 bedroom house takes about 1 year to build and yet a $9 billion gas plant takes only 3 years. The difference being the size of the workforce and the huge amount of extra money thrown in to make sure that the plant can get to production on time.
For the projects around $50 million that I have worked on, the construction time is between 12 months and 18 months.
I have never worked a $50 million project that has been completed in 6 months. Others may have done and I would be interested to hear of some examples.
To be clear, my definition of construction time starts when the first dirt is shifted not the months of design and procurement beforehand.
So, if you use my duration of 12 months to 18 months then a Q2 2016 production date should not be alarming. Well not to me anyway.
IMO, whatever the actual production date is, Q2 2016 will be much closer than Q1 2015.
I know stuff all about exploration or copper mines but I am willing to bet that I know civil construction at least as much as anyone working for AVB and this is the stage we are entering into.
The other experience I have throughout my career is people predicting ridiculous time frames. The end result is over promising and then under delivering.
Some will say we aren't in that situation yet but I believe that we are.
AVB Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
