Overview of Oliver's - Weighing the scales

Having watched Olivers for many years and visited their stores regularly, seeing its ups and downs, I thought it would be a good time to start a threat to list down and weigh up and consolidate positives and negatives of the current situation of the company. It is by no means exhaustive so feel free to add on either side of the ledger.
Positives

• Tammie Phillips coming on Board
• Anni Brownjohn joining
• (Both have extensive practical experience)
• The recent franchise agreement with EG
• The previous EG deal to stock Oliver's products at their ever expanding store network
• Securing the 5M term facility via Pure Asset management
• Neither EG or Pure Asset Management wont to waste their time and money on a failing business so clearly they have faith in Oliver's doing well.
• Australians not being able to travel OS likely until 2022 or until a vaccine is implemented
• The subsequent increase in Aussies travelling within NSW
• The potential for having charging stations at Olivers (and possibly EG franchises and outlets)
• Queensland lockdown keeping NSW in NSW
• Victoria coming out of lockdown and NSW holding its own.
• 3rd quarter may pick up but still be down due to Victoria but Dec and March quarters will likely be a bonanza.
• Business has made it through the quieter June and September quarters
• The share price is clearly recovering which is a sign of positive sentiment and bodes well for the future.
• They seemed to be on the recovery mode last AGM (29/11/19) just before the bushfires which was reflected in the share price and the initial takeover offer from EG. (share price .038 day before AGM on 28/11 rose and held a price to .01 by end of January, despite bush fires. However, then covid started to unravel as did the deal with EG, Still, we don't know how well the company may have continued if it was not for the bush fires and then covid)
• The Management team are looking better and better
• We are receiving regular announcements and being kept reasonably up to date
• People now have social distancing conditioned it, which will help avoid future lockdowns
• Jason Gunn, despite making mistakes in the past, is like all of us, learning and passionate about the business and has skin in the game.
• Share price has risen from a 12 mth low of .035 (22/11/19) to .056 (current) , a 61% rise, despite the havoc of bush fires and covid.
• Unlikely to have another natural disaster riddled 12 month period hopefully for awhile.

Accomodation options (just check out the deals on airbnb) have dramatically reduced encouraging more local travel

Negatives

• Original EG deal did not go ahead (but this could become a positive as the business strengthens and share price increases)
• Bush fires knocked around sales (though as land burnt out, it will be a number of years before possible recurrence)
• Covid then nearly destroyed the business (it did however make it through)
• Future lockdown possiblities (hopefully less as the govt has more systems in place to contain and trace, also it will be political suicide to push people and business too far with the lockdowns)
• Uncertainty about how beneficial the EG deal with be.
• Will trading be sufficient to enable the loan facility to be repaid?

So overall, despite the disaster of cover/bush fires, it appears the ledger looks positive. Still has a long way to go due to perilous financial position due to covid, bushfires however, as mentioned, share price is up significantly from low in November last year and up today again, whilst the overall market is being smashed.

It looks like a positive picture which is reflected in the share price increase recently, including the surges. For those who have stuck with Oliver's and also or those who see it for more than the share price, hopefully you will continue to be rewarded.

On a side note, stopped at Olivers Lithgow recently. If often used to look a bit despondent on some visits, often with us being the only customers, but not any more. When passing through over multiple months, it is clearly consistently busy. On a Saturday, non school holidays, it was less busy than other times but business was brisk with 3 staff working (it has 2 for many years). There were 14 customers there (some hidden out the back) . pic attached. If Lithgow is consistently picking up it bodes well for other stores.

Good luck and good fortune to all.