overview of uranium price supply and demand

From Uranium Miner nov 3rd:





Overview of Uranium Price, Supply, and Demand


U308 $60.00/lb (Effective: Oct 30th: Price Changed +$4.00 from survey 1 week ago): International supply shortages of uranium, along with escalating nuclear programs in nations such as India and China, which both together according to the World Nuclear Association have official plans in the works for 56 new reactors (not including Taiwan's 2), plus the addition of funds buying uranium contracts within past two years have caused the spot price of Uranium to more than quadruple in the last three (U3O8 was $10.75/lb in April 2003).

Supply Side: A persistent deficit between world U3O8 demand and worlds U3O8 mining supply has existed for close to two decades and inventories are steadily being depleted. Low grade uranium sources are plentiful and readily accessible but uneconomical at current prices, substantially higher prices are necessary to make them viable. High grade uranium deposits such as those found in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin are scarce, found in a few specific regions of the planet, involve substantial drilling and are located at great depths. Modern exploration techniques in high grade target zones and the certainty of sustained commodity prices offer the best likelihood for new supply; however the turnaround time from exploration to production is close to 10 years.

Demand Side: Governments worldwide struggle for solutions to control green house gas emissions and produce affordable energy; nuclear power is the cleanest, least expensive and most secure source of electricity. There are currently 441 operational nuclear reactors world wide and that number is expected to grow significantly within the next decade. In the U.S.A., which has 103 operational nuclear power plants providing approximately 20% of the country’s energy, reactors that have met the end of their normal 40-year operating license are being granted extensions and the U.S. Department of Energy is actively providing incentives encouraging power corporations to apply for licenses to build new reactors in an attempt to stave off an imminent energy shortage. Fearful of elevated prices and lack of availability, utility companies have been mostly responsible for the high level of spot demand for uranium.

442 Active Reactors (as of Q3 06)
Table of World Nuclear Reactors 2004-2006 & Uranium Requirements <= Source; World Nuclear Assoc.

NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION
2005 REACTORS OPERABLE
Aug 2006 REACTORS under CONSTRUCTION
Aug 2006 REACTORS PLANNED
Aug 2006 REACTORS PROPOSED
Aug 2006 URANIUM REQUIRED
2006
billion kWh % e No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe tonnes U
Argentina 6.4 6.9 2 935 1 692 0 0 0 0 134
Armenia 2.5 43 1 376 0 0 0 0 1 1000 51
Belgium 45.3 56 7 5728 0 0 0 0 0 0 1075
Brazil 9.9 2.5 2 1901 0 0 1 1245 0 0 336
Bulgaria 17.3 44 4 2722 0 0 2 1900 0 0 253
Canada* 86.8 15 18 12,595 2 1540 2 2000 0 0 1635
China 50.3 2.0 10 7587 5 4170 13 12,920 50 35,880 1294
Czech Republic 23.3 31 6 3472 0 0 0 0 2 1900 540
Egypt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 600 0
Finland 22.3 33 4 2696 1 1600 0 0 0 0 473
France 430.9 79 59 63,473 0 0 1 1630 1 1600 10,146
Germany 154.6 31 17 20,303 0 0 0 0 0 0 3458
Hungary 13.0 37 4 1773 0 0 0 0 0 0 251
India 15.7 2.8 16 3577 7 3088 0 0 24 13,160 1334
Indonesia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4000 0
Iran 0 0 0 0 1 915 2 1900 3 2850 0
Israel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1200 0
Japan 280.7 29 55 47,700 1 866 12 14,782 0 0 8169
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 300 0
Korea DPR (North) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 950 0 0 0
Korea RO (South) 139.3 45 20 16,840 0 0 8 9200 0 0 3037
Lithuania 10.3 70 1 1185 0 0 0 0 1 1000 134
Mexico 10.8 5.0 2 1310 0 0 0 0 2 2000 256
Netherlands 3.8 3.9 1 452 0 0 0 0 0 0 112
Pakistan 1.9 2.8 2 425 1 300 0 0 2 1200 64
Romania 5.1 8.6 1 655 1 655 0 0 3 1995 176
Russia 137.3 16 31 21,743 5 4550 2 1850 8 9375 3439
Slovakia 16.3 56 6 2472 0 0 0 0 2 840 356
Slovenia 5.6 42 1 676 0 0 0 0 0 0 144
South Africa 12.2 5.5 2 1842 0 0 1 165 24 4000 329
Spain 54.7 20 8 7442 0 0 0 0 0 0 1505
Sweden 69.5 45 10 8975 0 0 0 0 0 0 1435
Switzerland 22.1 32 5 3220 0 0 0 0 0 0 575
Turkey 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4500 0 0 0
Ukraine 83.3 49 15 13,168 0 0 2 1900 0 0 1988
United Kingdom 75.2 20 23 11,852 0 0 0 0 0 0 2158
USA 780.5 19 103 98,054 1 1065 2 2716 21 24,000 19,715
Vietnam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2000 0
WORLD** 2626 16 442 370,033 28 22,041 52 57,658 152 107,300 65,478
billion kWh % e No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe tonnes U
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2005 REACTORS OPERATING REACTORS BUILDING ON ORDER or PLANNED PROPOSED URANIUM REQUIRED
Sources & Ledger:
Reactor data: WNA to August 15th, 2006.
IAEA- for nuclear electricity production & percentage of electricity (% e) 7/7/05.
WNA: Global Nuclear Fuel Market (reference scenario) - for U. Operating = Connected to the grid;
Building/Construction = first concrete for reactor poured, or major refurbishment under way;
Planned = Approvals and funding in place, or construction well advanced but suspended indefinitely;
Proposed = clear intention but still without funding and/or approvals.
TWh = Terawatt-hours (billion kilowatt-hours), MWe = Megawatt net (electrical as distinct from thermal), kWh = kilowatt-hour.

NB: 68,357 tU = 80,613 t U3O8

* In Canada, 'construction' figure is 2 laid-up Bruce A reactors.

** The world total includes 6 reactors on Taiwan with a combined capacity of 4884 MWe, which generated a total of 38.4 billion kWh in 2005 (accounting for 20% of Taiwan's total electricity generation). Taiwan has two reactors under construction with a combined capacity of 2600 MWe.