ZEN zenith energy limited

PEA just released their FY19 results and it was superb. They...

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    PEA just released their FY19 results and it was superb.

    They reduced their debt by 31% in one year. At that rate in the next two years, they can wipe off their net debt. On the other hand, they can quickly clean off their debt because they lack growth. Their BOO has been flat since last FY.

    Operating cash flow was $60m. Maintenance capex was only $10m which brings free cash flow to around $50m.

    At $50m FCF, I personally think they sold too early.

    Their BOO MW has been stagnant since last FY at 373MW.
    BOO EBITDA comes in at $60.3m.
    EBITDA/BOO MW = $161k per MW.

    Take this valuation to ZEN's 219MW, our EBITDA would be $35m but I think our EBITDA would be much lower (low $100k/MW mark) because we win a lot more projects than PEA.

    Another key thing in PEA's presentation was their pipeline.

    Over 20 proposals outstanding all at various stages.
    Awaiting results of over 70MW in formal tenders.
    Approximately 280MW priced for projects in formal study stages.

    I'm sure ZEN is bidding on the same tenders.
 
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